Yesterday we bore witness to an all but decisive defeat of Senator Bernard Sanders as six more states voted in their perspective primaries. Joe Biden won every major state that voted including Idaho, Missouri, Mississippi, and the coveted Michigan with 125 delegates up for grabs. Senator Sanders won North Dakota, and is currently leading in Washington state by point five percent as of the writing of this post, with 67 percent of the votes in.
What does this mean for Joe and Bernie?
What Joe Biden has managed to pull off in the last three weeks is nothing short of a miracle. The once senator from Delaware, career politician with 35 years of experience, and former vice president to the most popular democrat currently in America, pulled off what for most other candidates given his circumstance at the time would have been impossible. After a conclusive victory in South Carolina, and a flood of key endorsements, Joe Biden went into Super Tuesday with the momentum and validity he needed to cause the other primarying states to fall in line. Biden has had definitive victories in Alabama, Arkansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Virginia, and Texas. Of note with these victories is that the Biden campaign was hemorrhaging money and had not been campaigning in any of the aforementioned states.
The Bernie Bros (Bernie Sanders supporters) of which primarily consist of young people, failed to send him over the finish line. The Biden coalition of blue collar, and older black moderates contributed significantly to his landslide victory. What South Carolina did was show America that the Obama coalition is alive and well, and the power that they hold should not be overlooked or undermined. This was obviously great news for Joe because not only are those the votes that he wants and needs, it also gives him an in to go for the same voters that flipped in 2016 and put Trump in office. For Bernie Sanders this means that its time to throw in the towel. Bernie being in the political discourse has pushed the democratic party far left enough where his ideas will be issues debated long after he is gone; but sometimes the person who comes up with the idea is not always the one who gets to champion it.
Bernie’s major flaw in his campaign among the many, hands down, was not pandering or being able to identify with moderates in the democratic party. It cannot even be argued that this primary was stolen from him like in 2016. When push came to shove Bernie did not and does not make the cut amongst moderates. Fact of the matter is, the man is a socialist, and socialism does not sit well with moderates no matter how much Bernie or his supporters tried to explain it away – the nail in the coffin being his favorable remarks towards the Castro regime in Cuba. That being said, Senator Sanders has yet to concede and plans to debate Joe this coming Sunday March 15, 2020.
Best Case Worst Case
Sunday’s debate is going to be in Arizona, two days before that state along with Illinois, Ohio and Florida vote. The key states to be aware of going into next Tuesday is Illinois and Florida. Best case scenario for Biden (worst case for Bernie) is he has an amazing debate on Sunday, annihilates Bernie on the issues, and has a landslide victory Tuesday. Worst case Scenario for Biden (Best case for Bernie) is Joe goes out on that debate stage on Sunday and his brain fails him big time. It was easier to overlook when there were 20 people running but now that there are only two people it is undeniable that Joe Biden is having cognitive failure. Joe Biden is a gaffe machine and cannot go two minutes without putting his foot in his mouth. His supporters as well as the democratic establishment have gone at length to undermine this fact about him. That cannot happen anymore.
If Joe Biden gets on that stage on Sunday and gets owned by Bernie in a major way, there is a very slim chance that Bernie could force a brokered convention. The reason I say slim is because the likelihood of that happening is highly improbable. Even if Joe has a poor debate performance and he very likely will; there is no evidence based on the votes that have already been casted that Bernie could rebound, the damage is irreparable. In addition to that, Florida has a lot of Hispanic voters, a demographic that Bernie did exceptional with in Nevada, however, the Floridian Hispanic voter is on average older, more conservative, and not Castro sympathizers. Bernie also struggles in Illinois. Based on his 2016 primary performance against Hillary, who won the state, Bernie will once again likely struggle with black and moderate voters especially against Biden who is a more liked candidate than Hillary was back then. Arizona and Ohio go to Biden no questions asked. Once again however, this is a worst case scenario, and with politics anything could happen so if Biden does flounder badly on stage Sunday, the momentum could flip.
What about November?
I hesitate to speculate on November with the uncertainty associated with politics. However, at a high level: given what we are seeing right now with coronavirus tanking Trumps economy, recession looming even closer (click here read my post: Trump’s Elephant in the Room, Recession), and Biden being the heir apparent nominee. Come Tuesday November 3rd 2020… Trump wins a second term. Democrats need to stop being delusional. Biden cannot speak, he is running on Obama’s clout, and he does not know where he is half of the time. Trump has already started his smear campaign against Joe. On the issue of electability, what made democrats think that a 77-year-old man who does not know his sister from his wife would be more electable than the 20+ other candidates that were in the race? Now I know there is a lot of nuance that I am leaving out in that statement, but the fact remains there is faulty logic in thinking that Joe Biden can make it to the white house over the incumbent Donald Trump. Bernie Sanders is no better but at least he would have had a fighting chance. All the same, I am eager to see how this all pans out for Joe. He could win if he motivates enough of the Obama coalition to come out and vote for him, OR if he steals enough Trump voters. One thing is certain, between now and November, anything is bound to happen.